Based on population estimates released Tuesday by the U.S. Census, it appears Alabama will narrowly avoid losing a seat in Congress.
Still, Alabama will hold onto its seven seats in the U.S. House of Representatives by only about 6,000 people – a slim margin, according to an apportionment calculator at the University of Michigan.
The estimates are not the official results of the 2020 Census, which will determine how House seats will be apportioned.
The 435 seats in the House are divided among the states based on population. Alabama officials had urged compliance with the census count this year for, among other things, fear of losing a seat in Congress. House seats will be reapportioned after the 2020 census count is finalized.
The latest Census estimates are calculated without incorporation or consideration of the 2020 Census results.
Losing a seat in Congress would also cost a state a vote in the Electoral College, which are allotted based on the number of House seats a state has – plus the two Senate seats each state has. Alabama currently has nine votes in the Electoral College.
According to the Census estimates released Tuesday, Alabama has 4,921,532 people living in the state. That’s an increase of 18,347 over the 2019 estimate.
Based on the latest Census estimates, Alabama protected its seven House seats by just 6,210 people. That’s the smallest margin of any state. Nebraska had the second-smallest margin with 7,966 people.
States that would lose a House seat, based on the University of Michigan Census estimates calculator: California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York (two seats), Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.
States that would gain a House seat: Arizona, Colorado, Florida (two seats), Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas (three seats).